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Beginning tonight at 7 p.m. on ABC, the 84th annual Academy Awards will pay tribute to what has been one of the best years for quality cinema in a long time. Artists rise to the occasion when times are hard. The so-called Golden Age of Cinema hit at the end of the 1930s, just as the Great Depression was drawing to a close and World War II was beginning.
In the late 1960s and early 1970s, at the height of national division over the Vietnam War, a second wave of thrilling filmmaking emerged.
Now, during an era of economic despair, unending wars, terrorism and political upheaval, filmmakers once again have called on their talents to address the age in which we live - as well as to entertain at a time when we need it most.
Nine movies will vie for the title of best picture tonight, and it's easy to make an argument for all but one (the insanely overrated "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"). Martin Scorsese's "Hugo" scored the most nominations with 11, followed by the French homage to silent films, "The Artist," with 10. It's likely that "Hugo" will win no more than three awards, probably fewer.
However, it's fairly certain that the favorite is "The Artist," which should garner as many as six or seven trophies.
Two of the four acting categories are sure bets. For best supporting actor, no one can beat Christopher Plummer, who, in "Beginners," plays a widower who comes out of the closet at age 75 only to discover he's dying of cancer. For best supporting actress, Olivia Spencer of "The Help" plays the maid Minnie Jackson with such surly enthusiasm that she's impossible to resist.
However among leading performances, the choices are not so simple. In the best-actor contest, Gary Oldman delivered the year's best performance in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," but the real battle is between George Clooney of "The Descendants" and Jean Dujardin of "The Artist." This one is anyone's guess, yet my gut instinct is that Clooney will pull it off simply because the voters will want to honor Alexander Payne's film with a major award, and "The Artist" will handily get its share.
For best actress, Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady" is masterful, perhaps her best ever. However, it will be difficult to beat Viola Davis' nuanced work in "The Help." The academy is sensitive to accusations of racism, and 2010's complaints about a dearth of black nominees have been heard. Don't misunderstand. Despite the inappropriately lush treatment of a gritty subject in "The Help," set in Mississippi at the beginning of the Civil Rights era, Davis is thrilling, as always.
Nevertheless, an epic performance deserves recognition, and Streep, who with this nomination - her 17th - won her last Oscar in 1982, should be the favorite. "The Iron Lady" didn't receive great reviews, but Streep's channeling of Thatcher earned ecstatic notices. Davis would win for all the wrong reasons. It's the politically savvy choice, but she has been better.
The call: Look for Davis to pull it out in a squeaker.
Of the five nominees for best director, two have emerged as the leading contenders: Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist" and Martin Scorsese for "Hugo." The irony is that both films are about the process of moviemaking, and in the case of the latter, film preservation. Those are the themes that support strong narratives in both cases. But "The Artist" is so original in its concept and execution, that despite Scorsese's impressive use of 3-D technology, Hazanavicius will win.
Without a script one can't make a movie, so it's always telling to ponder the winners of best original and best adapted screenplays.
Most often, the winner in one of these categories matches the winner for best picture, but I'm betting that won't be the case this year. For best original screenplay, Hazanavicius' "The Artist" will face Woody Allen's beloved "Midnight in Paris" head on, and Allen will win. It's a comeback of sorts for the misanthropic New York filmmaker, whose delightful fantasy bristles with neurotic wit and clever commentary on the nature of art and artists, then and now.
As for best adapted screenplay, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" is clearly the most accomplished, but the competition will come down to Payne's astute script for "The Descendants" and Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin's shrewd writing for "Moneyball." Family sagas such as "The Descendants" are favorites of the academy, so give this one to Payne.
The only foreign-language film that has a chance of beating Iran's "A Separation" is Poland's Holocaust drama "In Darkness." Indeed, Holocaust films have had good luck at the Oscars. It's wise never to count them out, even if "A Separation" has won nearly every foreign-film award thus far.
"Rango," featuring the voice of Johnny Depp, is unbeatable as best animated feature. And I doubt if any film can overtake the prison story "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory," for best documentary feature, although there's some sentiment for "Undefeated," about a volunteer coach who comes to the aid of three underprivileged football players in a Memphis, inner-city high school.
Although "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" is the favorite of the visual-effects wing of the academy, voters may want to honor the immensely popular "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2," the year's biggest moneymaker.
Even though it has stiff competition from "Hugo," "War Horse," with its bullets, bombs and equine screams, may just walk away with both sound awards. Take one look at Streep as Thatcher and you know "The Iron Lady" will win for best makeup. And the sleek 1920s costumes in "The Artist," even though viewed in black-and-white, appear to be the favorite in that category.
"The Tree of Life," the one genuine "art" film in the best-picture race, will have to settle for best cinematography, unless "The Artist" grabs that, too - along with the statuette for best editing, which it richly deserves.
My preference for best musical score is "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," but "The Artist" will win this as well. As for best song, voters could only come up with two nominees. My response to this is to abstain, even if "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" will win.
"Hugo," with its 11 nominations, can be certain only about one award: best art direction, for creating a fantastic universe inside a Paris train station in the 1930s.
In a year of great movies - some of which were overlooked entirely, such as Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar," Lars von Trier's "Melancholia," Jeff Nichols' "Take Shelter" and Lynne Ramsay's "We Need To Talk About Kevin" - one thing is certain. In 2011, filmmakers were obsessed with cinema itself: its past, its present and its possibilities.
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